Off Topic - Reliability Engineering

Messieurs & Mesdames

I have been asked a dumb (I think) question which it is in my better interest to answer.
The life of a hydrodynamic bearing.
The bearing in question is some 40 years old (perhaps) and suffering from some measurable substrate delamination (30%). Bearing material is white metal or Babbit, diameter is 1.5m, width is 0.9m, load is around 200T.
Lube is 220 cSt temp forecast around 40 deg C. No signs of cracking on the face.
According to my research, life is likely to be veeeery long, unless a crack develops which, if in the wrong spot, will destroy the bearing in short order. How do I estimate the likelihood of a crack developing? Perhaps you can tell me.
I was hoping that someone might refer me to some historical/statistical data which may put some gloss on an answer to a (probably) silly question.

Thanks

Steve McKenzie Received on Mon Apr 28 07:43:00 2003